Imagine you step into an elevator. There’s a Rangers fan inside. It’s Sept. 8. This guy’s apoplectic. The Rangers have lost seven of eight and fallen from first place to third. Out of the playoff picture. He won’t let you hear the end of it. He rants and raves about everyone and no one: Bruce Bochy, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman, Nathan Eovaldi. They’re all cooked, he says.
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He starts to go in on Josh H. Smith now — and this guy really hammers the ‘H,’ like he’s trying to prove a point — and you finally stop him:
“It’s fine, man,” you say. “Chill.”
He recoils. Makes a truly weird face. Chill?
“Yeah,” you reply. “Chill. Evan Carter just got here today. He’s good. The Rangers are going to win six in a row, then lose four, then win six again. They’ll be in first place on the last day of the season …”
This guy starts to interrupt.
“… but lose a tiebreaker to the Astros, obviously,” you go on. “So they’ll have to go to Tampa for the Wild Card Series. No one will be there to see it, but, trust me, the Rangers will sweep ’em. Then they’ll take the first two games in Baltimore in the Division Series and come home to Texas for the first time in more than two weeks with a chance to sweep again. So, chill. No one’s cooked.”
This guy isn’t sure whether to laugh or cry. He’s confused, blubbering, blathering on. Is this Evan Carter kid even postseason-eligible? Yes. Postseason eligibility is a construct. Is Scherzer pitching well? No, he’s hurt again, but he’s back to grunting through bullpen sessions and seems pretty happy about it. Do we have anyone to start Game 4? That’s a problem for another day.
The elevator dings. It’s his floor. This guy gets off. He looks at you.
“How can you be sure?” he asks, so full of questions but also of hope.
You tug the bill of your vintage Rangers cap. You’ve said all you were sent to say. The door closes. The elevator reaches the top floor and then ascends beyond.
AL Division Series Game 3: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Series: Rangers lead, 2-0
Start time: 8:03 p.m. ET on FOX
Game 3 pitching matchup
Orioles: RHP Dean Kremer
2023 stats: 13-5, 4.12 ERA, 172 2/3 innings, 157 strikeouts, 1.31 WHIP
We could spend another day second-guessing the Orioles’ decision to start Grayson Rodriguez in Game 2, or we could accept that he was going to start one of these games, and having Kremer in a must-win Game 3 isn’t the worst result. Kremer was great last year, with a 3.23 ERA in 125 1/3 innings, and he was solid again this season in a much-improved Orioles rotation.
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But one serious setback, season to season, was his success against left-handed hitters. Their OPS jumped almost 100 points, from .713 in 2022 to .811 in 2023. His various attempts at fixes included dropping his changeup usage, mixing in more cutters at times and, mostly, pumping more fastballs. The numbers started to improve in the second half. That was true across the board. Kremer had a 3.09 ERA across his 15 starts from July through September.
Kremer has a 5.17 ERA in three starts against the Rangers. He started against the May 27 and went 6 1/3 innings, with three runs allowed.
Rangers: RHP Nathan Eovaldi
2023 stats: 12-5, 3.63 ERA, 144 innings, 132 strikeouts, 1.14 WHIP
Here’s Eovaldi, back on the bump with an opportunity to send the Rangers through to the next round, like he did last week. He put on a pitching clinic in his start against the Rays, allowing one run in 6 2/3 innings. His average fastball velocity was 94.9 mph — not the 96 were seeing early this season, but not the 94 flat that drew so much attention in the second half. He had 16 swings and misses, including seven on the splitter and five on the curve.
Nathan Eovaldi's 6th and 7th Ks.
Thru 4. pic.twitter.com/d9Z7ub15wL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 4, 2023
Eovaldi, a longtime former AL East starter with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, has had plenty of experience, and success, against the Orioles: a 3.23 ERA in 18 starts. He has not faced them this season. It’ll be interesting to see how Orioles manager Brandon Hyde stacks the lineup in Game 3, as Eovaldi has huge reverse platoon splits this season, with righties posting a .762 OPS and lefties .579.
Game 3 X-factor
Orioles C Adley Rutschman
Baltimore has had so much success with Rutschman behind the dish. But he’s scuffled so far this postseason, with one hit (a double) and a walk in nine plate appearances, and here’s his moment to bounce back. Given how tough Eovaldi is on lefties, the amateurs among us might be inclined to pull a fast one mid-playoffs and ask a switch-hitter to give up the platoon advantage and bat righty. But Rutschman has been significantly stronger from the left side (.895 OPS, compared to .778 right-handed), and he’s no amateur strategist like us. He has the advanced plate approach, the bat-to-ball skills and the power to help turn this series around, if he’s given a chance.
Either way, this is the hitter to watch. As Adley goes, so go the O’s. If they can jump on Eovaldi early, it could lead to a lot of difficult decisions for the Rangers as they manage their bullpen and plan for a potential Game 4.
Notable quotable
“It’s a new era of Rangers baseball. Now to have a playoff game at home, I’m super excited for our fans. This is what I’ve envisioned so many times when I’ve walked in there and just looked around. Just to have a packed house full of 40,000 fans rocking and cheering on their home team, I think it’s just great for our community.”
— Rangers GM Chris Young, finally back home.
(Top photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Stephen J. Nesbitt is a senior MLB writer for The Athletic. He previously wrote for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, covering the Pittsburgh Pirates before moving to an enterprise/features role. He is a University of Michigan graduate. Follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenjnesbitt. Follow Stephen J. on Twitter @stephenjnesbitt
